Markets
Who wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Lamine Yamal probability
Book overround+1.2%
The 8 listed outcomes sum to 101.2%, so the book is charging a margin — every listed price is short of its true chance.
Harry Kane+3.558%
Lamine Yamal21%
Kylian Mbappé-0.78.6%Rodri6.5%
Lionel Messi-0.42.8%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia-0.62.0%Ousmane Dembélé+0.21.4%Fabian Ruiz-0.11.0%Book for Lamine Yamal · Yes
PriceContracts
27¢5,672
26¢6,043
25¢2,854
24¢7,196
23¢5,304
22¢2,242
Spread 2¢
20¢4,249
19¢5,857
18¢9,621
17¢7,296
16¢4,881
15¢5,370
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Lamine Yamal
$
Avg price22.0¢
Contracts113.6
Taker fee · debited at fill$1.37
To win$113.64
Balance after$973.64
Simulated fill — no funds move. Contracts redeem at $1.00 if correct.
Operator · simulate outcome
Post a result to the engine. The winning contract settles at $1.00, the rest at $0.00, the complete sets backing this market are burned and the collateral they locked is released.