Markets
Who wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Lionel Messi probability
Book overround+1.2%
The 8 listed outcomes sum to 101.2%, so the book is charging a margin — every listed price is short of its true chance.
Harry Kane+3.558%
Lamine Yamal21%
Kylian Mbappé-0.78.6%Rodri6.5%
Lionel Messi-0.42.8%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia-0.62.0%Ousmane Dembélé+0.21.4%Fabian Ruiz-0.11.0%Book for Lionel Messi · Yes
PriceContracts
10¢4,106
9¢4,191
8¢8,080
7¢5,452
6¢10,532
5¢3,668
Spread 3¢
2¢6,104
1¢2,332
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Lionel Messi
$
Avg price5.0¢
Contracts500
Taker fee · debited at fill$1.66
To win$500
Balance after$973.34
Simulated fill — no funds move. Contracts redeem at $1.00 if correct.
Operator · simulate outcome
Post a result to the engine. The winning contract settles at $1.00, the rest at $0.00, the complete sets backing this market are burned and the collateral they locked is released.