Markets
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Live · simulated$3.3m Vol. Ends 31 Dec 2026 NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP), Land-Ocean Temperature Index, No_Smoothing column, row 2026 (data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp).Climate temperature records
1 probability
The field3.8%
The 6 listed outcomes sum to 96.2%. The remaining 3.8% is the chance the winner is nobody on this list.
164%
228%
32.4%
6 or lower0.9%
40.5%
50.4%
Book for 1 · Yes
PriceContracts
70¢2,515
69¢3,636
68¢1,975
67¢9,262
66¢4,516
65¢13,729
Spread 2¢
63¢2,942
62¢8,264
61¢2,129
60¢4,303
59¢7,600
58¢2,542
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2026 Atlantic season: 10+ named storms?
32%
-1.2$1.7m Vol.Ends 30 Nov 2026
Who wins the 2026 F1 Drivers' Championship?
Kimi Antonelli74%
Lewis Hamilton10%George Russell5.5%+3 more outcomes
$201m Vol.Ends 6 Dec 2026
Who wins Brazil's 2026 election?
Lula da Silva (PT)65%
Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)26%
Renan Santos7.2%+1 more outcomes
$118m Vol.Ends 25 Oct 2026
1
$
Avg price65.0¢
Contracts38.5
Taker fee · debited at fill$0.61
To win$38.46
Balance after$974.39
Simulated fill — no funds move. Contracts redeem at $1.00 if correct.
Operator · simulate outcome
Post a result to the engine. The winning contract settles at $1.00, the rest at $0.00, the complete sets backing this market are burned and the collateral they locked is released.