Markets
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Live · simulated$3.3m Vol. Ends 31 Dec 2026 NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP), Land-Ocean Temperature Index, No_Smoothing column, row 2026 (data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp).Climate temperature records
4 probability
The field3.8%
The 6 listed outcomes sum to 96.2%. The remaining 3.8% is the chance the winner is nobody on this list.
164%
228%
32.4%
6 or lower0.9%
40.5%
50.4%
Book for 4 · Yes
PriceContracts
8¢1,997
7¢3,303
6¢1,257
5¢9,745
4¢7,539
3¢12,018
Spread 2¢
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2026 Atlantic season: 10+ named storms?
32%
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Who wins the 2026 F1 Drivers' Championship?
Kimi Antonelli74%
Lewis Hamilton10%George Russell5.5%+3 more outcomes
$201m Vol.Ends 6 Dec 2026
Who wins Brazil's 2026 election?
Lula da Silva (PT)65%
Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)26%
Renan Santos7.2%+1 more outcomes
$118m Vol.Ends 25 Oct 2026
4
$
Avg price3.0¢
Contracts833.3
Taker fee · debited at fill$1.70
To win$833.33
Balance after$973.3
Simulated fill — no funds move. Contracts redeem at $1.00 if correct.
Operator · simulate outcome
Post a result to the engine. The winning contract settles at $1.00, the rest at $0.00, the complete sets backing this market are burned and the collateral they locked is released.