The 5 listed outcomes sum to 76.4%. The remaining 23.6% is the chance the winner is nobody on this list.
Book for Rises above $2.80 · Yes
Simulated fill — no funds move. Contracts redeem at $1.00 if correct.
Post a result to the engine. The winning contract settles at $1.00, the rest at $0.00, the complete sets backing this market are burned and the collateral they locked is released.