Markets
Who has the top AI model at year end?
Live · simulated$6.8m Vol. Ends 31 Dec 2026 LMArena / Chatbot Arena leaderboardTech ai llm-raceAI & hardware race · 2026
Google probability
The field1.5%
The 5 listed outcomes sum to 98.5%. The remaining 1.5% is the chance the winner is nobody on this list.
Anthropic+0.571%
OpenAI-0.311%
Google+0.28.0%
DeepSeek+0.14.5%
xAI-0.24.0%Book for Google · Yes
PriceContracts
15¢4,365
14¢6,192
13¢4,631
12¢2,612
11¢3,521
10¢8,701
Spread 3¢
7¢4,863
6¢4,632
5¢2,277
4¢2,794
3¢4,652
2¢5,635
Google
$
Avg price10.0¢
Contracts250
Taker fee · debited at fill$1.57
To win$250
Balance after$973.43
Simulated fill — no funds move. Contracts redeem at $1.00 if correct.
Operator · simulate outcome
Post a result to the engine. The winning contract settles at $1.00, the rest at $0.00, the complete sets backing this market are burned and the collateral they locked is released.