Markets
Who has the top AI model at year end?
Live · simulated$6.8m Vol. Ends 31 Dec 2026 LMArena / Chatbot Arena leaderboardTech ai llm-raceAI & hardware race · 2026
xAI probability
The field1.5%
The 5 listed outcomes sum to 98.5%. The remaining 1.5% is the chance the winner is nobody on this list.
Anthropic+0.571%
OpenAI-0.311%
Google+0.28.0%
DeepSeek+0.14.5%
xAI-0.24.0%Book for xAI · Yes
PriceContracts
11¢5,886
10¢7,266
9¢6,027
8¢6,240
7¢7,377
6¢7,890
Spread 3¢
3¢12,606
2¢3,227
1¢6,348
xAI
$
Avg price6.0¢
Contracts416.7
Taker fee · debited at fill$1.65
To win$416.67
Balance after$973.36
Simulated fill — no funds move. Contracts redeem at $1.00 if correct.
Operator · simulate outcome
Post a result to the engine. The winning contract settles at $1.00, the rest at $0.00, the complete sets backing this market are burned and the collateral they locked is released.