Markets
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
Live · simulated$477k Vol. Ends 31 Dec 2026 BLS Employment Situation Report, Table A-15 (bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm), published monthly.Economics jobs unemploymentUS economy · the prints
≥5.0% probability
The field64.3%
The 4 listed outcomes sum to 35.7%. The remaining 64.3% is the chance the winner is nobody on this list.
≥5.0%10%
≥6.0%10%
≥7.0%8.0%
≥5.5%7.5%
Book for ≥5.0% · Yes
PriceContracts
16¢2,181
15¢3,226
14¢2,322
13¢10,508
12¢7,372
11¢12,622
Spread 2¢
9¢14,075
8¢5,813
7¢1,686
6¢8,056
5¢4,280
4¢4,530
≥5.0%
$
Avg price11.0¢
Contracts227.3
Taker fee · debited at fill$1.56
To win$227.27
Balance after$973.44
Simulated fill — no funds move. Contracts redeem at $1.00 if correct.
Operator · simulate outcome
Post a result to the engine. The winning contract settles at $1.00, the rest at $0.00, the complete sets backing this market are burned and the collateral they locked is released.