Markets
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
Live · simulated$477k Vol. Ends 31 Dec 2026 BLS Employment Situation Report, Table A-15 (bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm), published monthly.Economics jobs unemploymentUS economy · the prints
≥5.5% probability
The field64.3%
The 4 listed outcomes sum to 35.7%. The remaining 64.3% is the chance the winner is nobody on this list.
≥5.0%10%
≥6.0%10%
≥7.0%8.0%
≥5.5%7.5%
Book for ≥5.5% · Yes
PriceContracts
15¢5,451
14¢6,962
13¢4,515
12¢10,295
11¢2,234
10¢11,046
Spread 3¢
7¢4,531
6¢12,236
5¢2,702
4¢2,952
3¢4,236
2¢943
≥5.5%
$
Avg price10.0¢
Contracts250
Taker fee · debited at fill$1.57
To win$250
Balance after$973.43
Simulated fill — no funds move. Contracts redeem at $1.00 if correct.
Operator · simulate outcome
Post a result to the engine. The winning contract settles at $1.00, the rest at $0.00, the complete sets backing this market are burned and the collateral they locked is released.