Markets
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
Live · simulated$477k Vol. Ends 31 Dec 2026 BLS Employment Situation Report, Table A-15 (bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm), published monthly.Economics jobs unemploymentUS economy · the prints
≥7.0% probability
The field64.3%
The 4 listed outcomes sum to 35.7%. The remaining 64.3% is the chance the winner is nobody on this list.
≥5.0%10%
≥6.0%10%
≥7.0%8.0%
≥5.5%7.5%
Book for ≥7.0% · Yes
PriceContracts
15¢2,375
14¢3,594
13¢8,489
12¢8,385
11¢3,159
10¢5,558
Spread 3¢
7¢13,454
6¢4,480
5¢6,739
4¢2,306
3¢7,685
2¢3,547
≥7.0%
$
Avg price10.0¢
Contracts250
Taker fee · debited at fill$1.57
To win$250
Balance after$973.43
Simulated fill — no funds move. Contracts redeem at $1.00 if correct.
Operator · simulate outcome
Post a result to the engine. The winning contract settles at $1.00, the rest at $0.00, the complete sets backing this market are burned and the collateral they locked is released.