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Who wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or?58%+3.5·Who wins the 2026 World Series?8.8%+2.8·Avengers: Doomsday breaks opening record?18%+2.4·Spider-Man: Brand New Day hits $2B worldwide?55%+1.8·Fed hikes rates at September FOMC?55%+1.5·Ethereum tops $2,500 before 2027?35%-1.4·GOP holds Senate majority in 2026?56%-1.2·Who wins the 2027 NBA Finals?9.1%+1.2·2026 Atlantic season: 10+ named storms?32%-1.2·Mayweather–Pacquiao 2 happens by Sept 20?52%-1.0·Democrats retake the House in 2026?86%+0.8·Bitcoin hits $100K before 2027?10%+0.8·Who wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or?58%+3.5·Who wins the 2026 World Series?8.8%+2.8·Avengers: Doomsday breaks opening record?18%+2.4·Spider-Man: Brand New Day hits $2B worldwide?55%+1.8·Fed hikes rates at September FOMC?55%+1.5·Ethereum tops $2,500 before 2027?35%-1.4·GOP holds Senate majority in 2026?56%-1.2·Who wins the 2027 NBA Finals?9.1%+1.2·2026 Atlantic season: 10+ named storms?32%-1.2·Mayweather–Pacquiao 2 happens by Sept 20?52%-1.0·Democrats retake the House in 2026?86%+0.8·Bitcoin hits $100K before 2027?10%+0.8·
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Tech

5
Live markets
$15m
Volume
AI1Hardware1Space3
Who has the top AI model at year end?5 contenders · American odds
1AnthropicAnthropic+0.5−2451.4171%71¢
2OpenAIOpenAI-0.3+8099.0911%11¢
3GoogleGoogle+0.2+115012.508.0%8¢
4DeepSeekDeepSeek+0.1+212222.224.5%5¢
5xAIxAI-0.2+240025.004.0%4¢
The field — anyone not listed+656766.671.5%2¢

Who has the top AI model at year end?

AnthropicAnthropic71%
OpenAIOpenAI11%
GoogleGoogle8.0%
+2 more outcomes
$6.8m Vol.·Ends 31 Dec 2026

Photography: Politics by Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 3.0 · Sports by FightingRaven531, CC BY 3.0 · World by Mojnsen, CC BY-SA 4.0 · Lula da Silva by Palácio do Planalto, CC BY 2.0 · Flávio Bolsonaro by Agência Senado, Attribution · Ronaldo Caiado by Senado Federal, Attribution · Renan Santos by Joao.maestro2023, CC BY-SA 4.0. Remaining plates are public domain (US federal works) or generated.