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Markets

Who wins the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?

Live · simulated$2.4m Vol. Ends 10 Oct 2026 Norwegian Nobel Committee announcementWorld nobel awards
Yulia Navalnaya probability
The field71.3%

The 6 listed outcomes sum to 28.7%. The remaining 71.3% is the chance the winner is nobody on this list.

Yulia NavalnayaYulia Navalnaya+0.38.5%
Volodymyr ZelenskyyVolodymyr Zelenskyy-0.56.9%
UNRWAUNRWA+0.14.7%
Pope Leo XIVPope Leo XIV+0.23.3%
Tamim bin Hamad Al ThaniTamim bin Hamad Al Thani2.9%
Donald TrumpDonald Trump-0.32.4%

Book for Yulia Navalnaya · Yes

PriceContracts
16¢3,096
15¢6,232
14¢8,470
13¢1,928
12¢5,172
11¢7,514
Spread 3¢
8¢3,283
7¢12,452
6¢6,803
5¢2,711
4¢5,247
3¢4,373

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Who wins Brazil's 2026 election?

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Renan SantosRenan Santos7.2%
+1 more outcomes
$118m Vol.·Ends 25 Oct 2026
World

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

4.0%
$18m Vol.·Ends 31 Dec 2026
World

When is a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire agreed?

By Dec 31, 202635%
By Oct 31, 202615%
By Aug 31, 20263.5%
$5.8m Vol.·Ends 31 Dec 2026
Yulia Navalnaya
$
Avg price11.0¢
Contracts227.3
Taker fee · debited at fill$1.56
To win$227.27
Balance after$973.44

Simulated fill — no funds move. Contracts redeem at $1.00 if correct.

Operator · simulate outcome

Post a result to the engine. The winning contract settles at $1.00, the rest at $0.00, the complete sets backing this market are burned and the collateral they locked is released.