Markets
When is a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire agreed?
Live · simulated$5.8m Vol. Ends 31 Dec 2026 Consensus of credible reporting confirming a formal ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine.World conflict ceasefireCeasefire watch
By Dec 31, 2026 probability
The field46.5%
The 3 listed outcomes sum to 53.5%. The remaining 46.5% is the chance the winner is nobody on this list.
By Dec 31, 202635%
By Oct 31, 202615%
By Aug 31, 20263.5%
Book for By Dec 31, 2026 · Yes
PriceContracts
41¢2,717
40¢1,216
39¢4,077
38¢8,747
37¢4,821
36¢9,054
Spread 2¢
34¢3,571
33¢6,839
32¢3,743
31¢6,160
30¢6,139
29¢1,439
By Dec 31, 2026
$
Avg price36.0¢
Contracts69.4
Taker fee · debited at fill$1.12
To win$69.44
Balance after$973.88
Simulated fill — no funds move. Contracts redeem at $1.00 if correct.
Operator · simulate outcome
Post a result to the engine. The winning contract settles at $1.00, the rest at $0.00, the complete sets backing this market are burned and the collateral they locked is released.