Markets
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
Live · simulated$491k Vol. Ends 31 Dec 2026 SpaceX's official launch video feed (YouTube), corroborated by a consensus of credible reporting.Tech space spacexThe space race · 2026
11-12 probability
Book overround+1.6%
The 6 listed outcomes sum to 101.6%, so the book is charging a margin — every listed price is short of its true chance.
5-660%
<533%
7-85.1%
9-102.1%
11-121.5%
>160.9%
Book for 11-12 · Yes
PriceContracts
8¢5,708
7¢3,127
6¢8,260
5¢9,780
4¢9,928
3¢5,630
Spread 2¢
11-12
$
Avg price3.0¢
Contracts833.3
Taker fee · debited at fill$1.70
To win$833.33
Balance after$973.3
Simulated fill — no funds move. Contracts redeem at $1.00 if correct.
Operator · simulate outcome
Post a result to the engine. The winning contract settles at $1.00, the rest at $0.00, the complete sets backing this market are burned and the collateral they locked is released.