Markets
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
Live · simulated$491k Vol. Ends 31 Dec 2026 SpaceX's official launch video feed (YouTube), corroborated by a consensus of credible reporting.Tech space spacexThe space race · 2026
5-6 probability
Book overround+1.6%
The 6 listed outcomes sum to 101.6%, so the book is charging a margin — every listed price is short of its true chance.
5-660%
<533%
7-85.1%
9-102.1%
11-121.5%
>160.9%
Book for 5-6 · Yes
PriceContracts
66¢3,748
65¢6,822
64¢5,443
63¢5,407
62¢6,553
61¢10,765
Spread 2¢
59¢7,668
58¢3,247
57¢10,863
56¢4,434
55¢3,828
54¢4,627
5-6
$
Avg price61.0¢
Contracts41
Taker fee · debited at fill$0.68
To win$40.98
Balance after$974.32
Simulated fill — no funds move. Contracts redeem at $1.00 if correct.
Operator · simulate outcome
Post a result to the engine. The winning contract settles at $1.00, the rest at $0.00, the complete sets backing this market are burned and the collateral they locked is released.