Markets
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
Live · simulated$491k Vol. Ends 31 Dec 2026 SpaceX's official launch video feed (YouTube), corroborated by a consensus of credible reporting.Tech space spacexThe space race · 2026
7-8 probability
Book overround+1.6%
The 6 listed outcomes sum to 101.6%, so the book is charging a margin — every listed price is short of its true chance.
5-660%
<533%
7-85.1%
9-102.1%
11-121.5%
>160.9%
Book for 7-8 · Yes
PriceContracts
12¢4,882
11¢7,442
10¢4,052
9¢9,989
8¢5,230
7¢8,719
Spread 3¢
4¢7,254
3¢11,564
2¢5,227
1¢4,944
7-8
$
Avg price7.0¢
Contracts357.1
Taker fee · debited at fill$1.63
To win$357.14
Balance after$973.37
Simulated fill — no funds move. Contracts redeem at $1.00 if correct.
Operator · simulate outcome
Post a result to the engine. The winning contract settles at $1.00, the rest at $0.00, the complete sets backing this market are burned and the collateral they locked is released.