Markets
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
Live · simulated$491k Vol. Ends 31 Dec 2026 SpaceX's official launch video feed (YouTube), corroborated by a consensus of credible reporting.Tech space spacexThe space race · 2026
9-10 probability
Book overround+1.6%
The 6 listed outcomes sum to 101.6%, so the book is charging a margin — every listed price is short of its true chance.
5-660%
<533%
7-85.1%
9-102.1%
11-121.5%
>160.9%
Book for 9-10 · Yes
PriceContracts
9¢3,696
8¢4,440
7¢7,483
6¢7,516
5¢5,128
4¢13,010
Spread 3¢
1¢9,930
9-10
$
Avg price4.0¢
Contracts625
Taker fee · debited at fill$1.68
To win$625
Balance after$973.32
Simulated fill — no funds move. Contracts redeem at $1.00 if correct.
Operator · simulate outcome
Post a result to the engine. The winning contract settles at $1.00, the rest at $0.00, the complete sets backing this market are burned and the collateral they locked is released.