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Who wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or?58%+3.5·Who wins the 2026 World Series?8.8%+2.8·Avengers: Doomsday breaks opening record?18%+2.4·Spider-Man: Brand New Day hits $2B worldwide?55%+1.8·Fed hikes rates at September FOMC?55%+1.5·Ethereum tops $2,500 before 2027?35%-1.4·GOP holds Senate majority in 2026?56%-1.2·Who wins the 2027 NBA Finals?9.1%+1.2·2026 Atlantic season: 10+ named storms?32%-1.2·Mayweather–Pacquiao 2 happens by Sept 20?52%-1.0·Democrats retake the House in 2026?86%+0.8·Bitcoin hits $100K before 2027?10%+0.8·Who wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or?58%+3.5·Who wins the 2026 World Series?8.8%+2.8·Avengers: Doomsday breaks opening record?18%+2.4·Spider-Man: Brand New Day hits $2B worldwide?55%+1.8·Fed hikes rates at September FOMC?55%+1.5·Ethereum tops $2,500 before 2027?35%-1.4·GOP holds Senate majority in 2026?56%-1.2·Who wins the 2027 NBA Finals?9.1%+1.2·2026 Atlantic season: 10+ named storms?32%-1.2·Mayweather–Pacquiao 2 happens by Sept 20?52%-1.0·Democrats retake the House in 2026?86%+0.8·Bitcoin hits $100K before 2027?10%+0.8·
All markets

Economics

6
Live markets
$17m
Volume
Rates & the Fed1Inflation2Commodities1Jobs2
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?4 contenders · American odds
1≥5.0%+8859.8510%10¢
2≥6.0%+90010.0010%10¢
3≥7.0%+115812.588.0%8¢
4≥5.5%+122513.257.5%8¢
The field — anyone not listed−1811.5564%64¢
How many jobs added in July 2026 (nonfarm payrolls)?6 contenders · American odds
150k–100k+1082.0848%48¢
20–50k+2853.8526%26¢
3100k–150k+5786.7815%15¢
4<0+7668.6612%12¢
5150k–200k+95310.539.5%10¢
6200k++18082181.820.5%1¢
Economics

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

≥5.0%10%
≥6.0%10%
≥7.0%8.0%
+1 more outcomes
$477k Vol.·Ends 31 Dec 2026
Economics

How many jobs added in July 2026 (nonfarm payrolls)?

50k–100k48%
0–50k26%
100k–150k15%
+3 more outcomes
$27k Vol.·Ends 7 Aug 2026

Photography: Politics by Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 3.0 · Sports by FightingRaven531, CC BY 3.0 · World by Mojnsen, CC BY-SA 4.0 · Lula da Silva by Palácio do Planalto, CC BY 2.0 · Flávio Bolsonaro by Agência Senado, Attribution · Ronaldo Caiado by Senado Federal, Attribution · Renan Santos by Joao.maestro2023, CC BY-SA 4.0. Remaining plates are public domain (US federal works) or generated.