Markets
Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31, 2026?
Live · simulated$2.9m Vol. Ends 31 Dec 2026 Consensus of credible reporting confirming Phase II implementation, per official Israeli, Hamas, or mediator (Qatar/Egypt/US) statements.World conflict ceasefireCeasefire watch
56%
Yes probability
PriceContracts
62¢5,577
61¢1,467
60¢5,584
59¢6,485
58¢9,475
57¢8,561
Spread 2¢
55¢10,731
54¢8,678
53¢4,508
52¢4,533
51¢6,633
50¢5,161
$
Avg price57.0¢
Contracts43.9
Taker fee · debited at fill$0.75
To win$43.86
Balance after$974.25
Simulated fill — no funds move. Contracts redeem at $1.00 if correct.
Operator · simulate outcome
Post a result to the engine. The winning contract settles at $1.00, the rest at $0.00, the complete sets backing this market are burned and the collateral they locked is released.