Markets
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Live · simulated$39m Vol. Ends 31 Dec 2026 Official confirmation from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or a consensus of credible reporting.Politics geopolitics conflictGeopolitical flashpoints
3.9%
Yes probability
PriceContracts
11¢2,394
10¢5,048
9¢3,467
8¢4,901
7¢7,812
6¢2,709
Spread 3¢
3¢12,960
2¢8,154
1¢9,115
$
Avg price6.0¢
Contracts416.7
Taker fee · debited at fill$1.65
To win$416.67
Balance after$973.36
Simulated fill — no funds move. Contracts redeem at $1.00 if correct.
Operator · simulate outcome
Post a result to the engine. The winning contract settles at $1.00, the rest at $0.00, the complete sets backing this market are burned and the collateral they locked is released.