Markets
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Live · simulated$57m Vol. Ends 31 Dec 2026 Consensus of credible reporting from major news sources, per Polymarket resolution criteria.Politics geopolitics conflictGeopolitical flashpoints
16%
Yes probability
PriceContracts
22¢4,095
21¢2,276
20¢8,841
19¢7,849
18¢4,221
17¢14,191
Spread 2¢
15¢2,563
14¢7,968
13¢4,238
12¢8,842
11¢5,432
10¢3,370
$
Avg price17.0¢
Contracts147.1
Taker fee · debited at fill$1.45
To win$147.06
Balance after$973.55
Simulated fill — no funds move. Contracts redeem at $1.00 if correct.
Operator · simulate outcome
Post a result to the engine. The winning contract settles at $1.00, the rest at $0.00, the complete sets backing this market are burned and the collateral they locked is released.