Markets
When is a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire agreed?
Live · simulated$5.8m Vol. Ends 31 Dec 2026 Consensus of credible reporting confirming a formal ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine.World conflict ceasefireCeasefire watch
By Oct 31, 2026 probability
The field46.5%
The 3 listed outcomes sum to 53.5%. The remaining 46.5% is the chance the winner is nobody on this list.
By Dec 31, 202635%
By Oct 31, 202615%
By Aug 31, 20263.5%
Book for By Oct 31, 2026 · Yes
PriceContracts
21¢2,135
20¢4,586
19¢2,555
18¢5,407
17¢9,123
16¢2,935
Spread 2¢
14¢8,239
13¢10,522
12¢10,381
11¢1,634
10¢4,407
9¢1,605
By Oct 31, 2026
$
Avg price16.0¢
Contracts156.3
Taker fee · debited at fill$1.47
To win$156.25
Balance after$973.53
Simulated fill — no funds move. Contracts redeem at $1.00 if correct.
Operator · simulate outcome
Post a result to the engine. The winning contract settles at $1.00, the rest at $0.00, the complete sets backing this market are burned and the collateral they locked is released.